OBR: NPPF overhaul to take Labour within ‘touching distance’ of 1.5m homes

The Office for Budget Responsibility said Labour’s planning reforms could provide a £15.1bn boost to the economy over the next 10 years and deliver 1.3m homes by the end of the parliament, according to Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

The bullish prediction came during the Chancellor’s Spring Statement, less than a week after damning statistics on planning submissions and approvals were released by the government.

Just over 30,000 housing projects were given the green light nationally in 2024, the lowest figure since records began in 1979.

However, the government is confident the reforms to the National Planning Policy Framework it has imposed – include reintroducing mandatory housing targets, increasing them significantly in many areas, and introducing the idea of Grey Belt – will have the desired effect on housing delivery.

“Changes to NPPF alone will help build over 1.3m homes in England over next five years, taking us within touching distance of our manifesto promise to build 1.5m homes England in this parliament,” Reeves said.

Reeves’ said the OBR, the government’s official forecaster, has also predicted a “40-year housebuilding high”, which could deliver up to 305,000 homes annually by the end of 2029/30.

Only 234,000 new homes were delivered in 2022/23 – the last year from which data is available.

The OBR also predicts Labour’s planning reforms would “permanently increase level of real GDP”, Reeves said.

The predicted £15.1bn economic boost over the next 10 years is the “biggest positive growth impact OBR have ever reflected in a forecast for a policy with no fiscal cost”, she said.

The Chancellor ended her speech with a warning to the Conservatives and Lib Dems, who have opposed Labour’s Planning and Infrastructure Bill, which sits alongside the  NPPF reforms and aims to “get Britain building” and unlock growth.

“If the parties opposite do not support these reforms they are opposing economic growth, more homes for families, and good jobs across our country.”

Cuts to welfare to fund increased defence funding – including £200m for a nuclear defence campus in Barrow – were features of Reeves’ statement, which the Conservatives had branded an “emergency budget”.

She also pointed to global economic uncertainty and “unstable trading patterns” as the cause of increased borrowing costs, with the OBR predicting a £4.1bn deficit by 2029/30 and halving the growth forecast to 1% for the coming year.

Reeves used her Spring Statement as an opportunity to touch again on economic stimuli announced earlier in the week – namely a £600m investment to train 60,000 construction workers by 2029 and an additional £2bn top up for the Affordable Homes Programme.